16/11/23
first published in csloh.substack; updated with new content materials herein 19/11/23
1]Introduction
The IDF did not achieve their Lebanon objectives in the 1982 invasion nor the 2006 war. Yet Israel is continuing to contribute tensions by escalating violence along the border between Israel and Lebanon, (Raina Aboudzeid, New Yorker). Israel by exacerbating hostility along the border could likely lead to a regional war as U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin expressed concern to his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant in a call on Saturday last.
Whereby, Iran’s message to the U.S. and Israel is ‘bring it on‘ as the escalation of wider aggression against Palestinians makes battle expansion seems inevitable, al mayadeen 10/11/23.
In fact, day by day members of the resistance axis in Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen are stepping up the escalation ladder, conscious and cautious that Israeli nuclear arsenal could well be a major threat to stability in MENA (Middle East North Africa).
Often unnoticed is that Americans troops are “prepared to die for the Jewish State”.
What should be understood by this statement is that the US and Israel have a longstanding Military “Partnership” as well as (Jerusalem Post) a “Signed” Military Agreement (classified) regarding Israel’s attack on Gaza.
Lt. General Richard Clark is U.S. Third Air Force Commander, among the highest-ranking military officers in the U.S. Armed Forces. While he refers to Juniper Cobra, “a joint military exercise that has been conducted for almost a decade”, his statement points to a much broader “signed” military-intelligence agreement (classified) with Israel which no doubt includes the extension of the Israeli-US bombing of Gaza to the broader Middle East, (M.Chossudovsky, Global Research, November 17, 2023).
While during the the 16th. to the 19th centuries, nearly 13 million Africans were brutally snatched from their homelands, enslaved, and forced to toil for the nefarious wellbeings of European and Euro-American powers, the western neo-imperialism spectre continued to these days in North Africa whether as component of la Françafrique in Libya, African Guinea, Mali, Burkina Faso, and most recently Niger, characterised by odious corruptions and covert activities perpetrated through various Franco-African economic, political and military networks (theguardian) that France was supplying almost all of Israel’s major weapons including planes, tanks and ships as well as building the Israeli nuclear plant that developed her atomic weapons. The mere fact that Israel’s recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over the Western Sahara territory can be observed as an evolving Zionist strategy, driven by incentives for further regional extraction and control compared to China’s international discourse power 话语权 that is commensurate with China’s comprehensive national strength and international status, (csloh.substack).
2] Background
Israel has declared war with Hamas after ten months of the most significant Israel’s domestic political and social crisis in decades, owing to the Netanyahu-led government’s judicial coup – legislation aimed at dramatically weakening Israel’s judiciary and potentially rescuing Netanyahu from the three corruption trials he faces. Presently, he is hitting a trust rock bottom while conducting the Israel-Palestine war, (Haaretz) and where ‘Netanyahu government days are over’; besides a report of him serving the interests of Big Money, the Military Industrial Complex, Corrupt Politicians, (globalresearch).
The war comes amid an escalation of violence between West Bank Palestinians and Israeli settlers, the latter empowered by Israel’s most right-wing government ever, (see The Triad of Imperialism-Imperialism-Zionism-Reactionism tracing the inextricable link between Zionism, colonialism, and imperial power). This is also when the Zionist Left is left in a limbo of where they are, whom they want to be, and where and how to go forth with the movement of the progressive Global Left, (Ilan Pappé).
3] Positioning
Though observers have expressed that after the Nasrallah second speech, [ a summarised key points HERE ], it has some measures of a reassurance; as an instance, Arab-Iran amity is a geopolitical reality according to former India diplomat, M. Bhadrakumar. However, the joint meeting of the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) that took place in Saudi Arabia on 11 November 2023, came out with meaningless statements that did not pressure Israel and its Western backers through diplomatic and economic means, (malaysianow).
The only practical proposal came from Iran’s Raisi who urged Muslim countries to immediately stop the supply of oil and gas to the Zionist entity, to cut off diplomatic ties, and to stop their airspace from being used by Israeli planes, besides to prevent US bases in their countries (for example: Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia) from transferring US military equipment to Israel, (farsnews); csloh.substack, Stop arming Israel.
Whereas, Turkey exports to Israel was US$7.03 Billion during 2022, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. Oil continues to flow to Israel via Turkey (where Azerbaijani crude, according to intelinews, flows from the Turkey’s Mediterranean oil hub port of Ceyhan to Israel’s Eilat Port) despite Erdogan’s frequent vehement but crafty insincere speeches on plight of Gaza.
Thus, the U.S.-backed transportation corridor – attempting to imitate China’s Belt & Road Initiative but expanded with a military alliance in I2U2 – linking India via Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel to the EU could well become a graveyard, (wall street journal 9th. September 2023), unless resurrect with the gas fields in the territorial waters of Israel setting the foundations of a new imperialism (Sheila Ryan, MERIP Reports (1974) 24, pp. 3-28, p. 6) – the Tamar gas field (200 billion cubic meters of reserves) and more famously the Leviathan gas field (600 billion cubic meters of reserves). The aim is to supply Europe from these two offshore fields:
Inevitably, reactionism is nurturing and rearing its ugly head in the MENA region. Interests of various comprador regimes’ ruling classes, closely connected to U.S.-led imperial capital, are in states like Jordan, Egypt and UAE. The UAE had normalised relationship with the Zionist entity. Israel has already proposed that a significant portion of Egypt’s foreign debt through the World Bank be forgiven if the government led by President Abdel Fatah el-Sisi allows the entry of Palestinian residents from the Gaza Strip through the Rafah border crossing. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia is liaising with Iran as mediated by China; see The Beijing Agreement, too.
Also characteristically unsurprising in an US-allied geostrategic posture to containing China (Bhadrakumar; see AmandaYee), India rushed to support Israel is definitively untenable (indiapunchline, 29/10/23) and consequently induced opposite reactions. On a phone call with their Brazilian counterparts, the Chinese Foreign Ministry highlighted how “the crux of the issue lies in the fact that justice has not been done to the Palestinian people.”
Meanwhile, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Major General Mohammad Baqeri, had held a telephone conversation with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shuigo, saying that the Palestinian resistance groups’ military operation falls in line with their legitimate right to self-defense and countering Israel’s occupation as well as 70 years of the Zionist regime’s suppression and cruelty against the Palestinian people, (see thecradle, and farsnews.ir).
Israeli officials flatly deny it.
POTUS is jitty – rather, very afraid – because his officials have admitted, and proclaimed, their total political powerlessness to influence its unhinged Zionist ally whence there is a growing fury against US in Arab world.
At the same time, more than 130 former Obama campaign staffers and political appointees sent the ex-president a letter demanding he “leverage” his influence with President Joe Biden and other elected officials to call for a ceasefire and broker the return of hostages, the Intercept reported.
(With the declining hegemonic hubris of the United States of America, to preview also the unherd, The post-America war has begun; collective on foreign affairs, The New International Order; alpha-delta, Geopolitics in a Multipolar World; Stephen M. Walt, It’s Time to End the ‘Special Relationship’ With Israel).
4] Wider War
This suite of existential situational events arises because there are concerns that Israel is trying to provoke Hezbollah and create a pretext for a wider war in Lebanon that could draw the U.S. and other countries further into the conflict, (Axios; Bloomberg; Al Arabiya).
The threat of an Israeli strike on Iran is real, (AEI).
In earlier essays, one explored the Israel-HAMAS War and elaborared on the widening MENA conflict after Alastair Crooke expressed an dismal outlook with Netanyahu having no plan (militarily nor any socio-economic redevelopment) for a post-conflict Gaza, (Chicago Global Affairs) as to whom would administer Gaza after the invasion; whereafter, in what ways would the fate of The Palestinians who would affect Israel’s future security, too (Chicago Tribune) even insofar it might be immediately the day after that invasion is completed, (Yonatan Touval).
Adding further to Alistair Crooke analysis, this is his updated commentary:
Alastair Crooke in Al Mayadeen:
Israeli popular sentiment — even amongst former liberals — is moving toward a Greater Nakba. Gaza is under Nakba pressures. So is the West Bank, as settler violence against Palestinians surges. Even a ‘liberal’ such as former opposition leader Lapid now agrees that ‘settlers’ in the occupied West Bank are not ‘settlers’ at all, since the land is but the ‘Biblical land of Israel’.
Nakba ‘ambitions’ are widening to South Lebanon (up to the Litani River) too. The radical members of Netanyahu’s government say Israelis will never return to the kibbutz adjacent to Lebanon, without Hezbollah’s removal from the border area.
So, the call is heard for “Israel” to ‘take’ Lebanon up to the Litani (a key water source) — and ‘serendipitously’ the Israeli air force has begun operating up to 40 kms inside Lebanon. Cabinet members now openly speak of the IOF needing to turn its attention to Hezbollah once Hamas has been ‘obliterated’.
…
Plainly, the White House is struggling to avoid the slide towards full regional war, as both the Lebanese front and the Iraqi front heats up: On Sunday, Iraqi movements again fired missiles at the American base in Shaddadi.“Israel” is sensing the present crisis to be both an existential risk, but an ‘opportunity’ too – an opportunity to establish “Israel” across ‘its Biblical lands’ over the long term. There is no mistaking it — this is the direction of travel of Israeli popular sentiment, from both Left and Right wings, to bloody eschatology.
Netanyahu has had said that Israel would take responsibility for Gaza’s security for an “indefinite period” after the end of its war with Hamas, prompting pushback from the United States, (Text Translation: The Israeli plan for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza (Mondoweiss).
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said late Thursday that he told Prime Minister Netanyahu that “there can’t be a reoccupation by Israel of Gaza,” but conceded that there may have to be a transitional period where “security is provided for Gaza.”
Though Netanyahu was quoted not seeking to ‘occupy’ Gaza but ‘demilitarise’ it (AlJazeera, Nov 10 2023), but in the heart of Gaza, over two million people are enduring a relentless genocidal Israeli bombardment, (globalconscienceconvoy.org) that exposes distinctive realities to the world.
According to Al Jazeera, since last Sunday, the Al-Quds and Kamal Adwan hospitals, and Chris Hedges’ Report on the Al Shifa hospital have suspended operations due to Israeli constant bombardment and dwindling supplies of fuel and medicines. WHO decried Israel’s targeted raid of Al-Shifa as “totally unacceptable,” noting that it has lost contact with health workers at the hospital. Jordan also condemned the entry of Israeli forces as a violation of international law.
A group known as Healthcare Workers Watch-Palestine, formed in November 2023, has been keeping a list of healthcare workers in Gaza killed by Israeli attacks (226 are known to have been killed from October 7 till November 13, counterpunch 16/11/23).
Recently, it was pointed out by the US that Hamas has a command centre under Al-Shifa hospital (BBC, November 14 2023).
But how would they know?
It seems that Tablet as far back as July 29 2014 reported that the Israeli built it. Back in 1983, when Israel was still ruling Gaza, they built a secure underground operating room and tunnel network beneath Shifa hospital — which is one among several reasons why Israeli security sources are so sure that there is now a Hamas Command Bunker in Gaza.
Israel raided al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City at dawn on Wednesday after encircling and besieging it for days and launching heavy attacks in the area. Troops had reportedly withdrawn from hospital buildings and redeployed to al-Shifa’s gates on Wednesday evening.
Late Wednesday night, Adnan al-Bursh, the head of the orthopedic department at al-Shifa hospital, told Al Jazeera Arabic that Israeli bulldozers began razing the area around the southern gate of the medical complex, (electronicintifada).
Tareq Hajjaj of mondoweiss, via voice note, spoke of the injured left Al-Shifa Hospital with wounds still bleeding, some on wheelchairs, some pulled by cart. Those who arrived in the south a few days earlier reported that Al-Shifa Hospital’s administration had urged them to flee since it would soon no longer be operational; by now, it has completely closed down.
Not before those vicious IDF snipers, according to Palestinian Red Crescent Society (PCRS), cold-bloodedly opened fire on the intensive care unit at al-Quds hospital in Gaza City; two of whom are in critical condition – when the majority of the injured were children.
These attacks have caused untold suffering, especially among children, the elderly, and the most vulnerable. For too long, The Nakba Occupation (read 50 stories and UN.org) has been emboldened by the unconditional support of major world powers, who just disregard Israeli atrocities and shield it from accountability, (press UN.org).
UNICEF executive director Catherine Russell, addressing the UN’s security council on October 30, stated that more than 420 children were being killed or injured in Gaza each day in the Israeli offensive.
This systematic assault, a crime against humanity (UNHR), is aimed at displacing the Palestinians from their land and extinguishing their cause, (Global Conflict Tracker).
Of an article by Danny Danon, former Israeli ambassador to the United Nations, and Ram Ben-Barak, former deputy director of the Israeli spy agency Mossad, entitled ‘The West Should Welcome Gaza Refugees’, the authors have the impudence audacity to propose moving Gaza’s population to countries ready to accept them.
Indeed, this ‘Decisive Plan’ internalisation (the Smotrich Doctrine – after Israeli far-right minister Bezalel Smotrich) is evidently the new ultimatum for Gaza: emigration or annihilation.
On October 17, the ‘Misgav Institute for National Security & Zionist Strategy’, an Israeli think tank, published a position paper in which they outlined their not dissimilar proposed ethnic cleansing plan, (Palestine Chronicle, 14/11/23); globalresearch, Israeli War Crimes and Propaganda Follow US Blueprint).
5] Tunnel System
42 days since 7th October, yet the IDF in making slow progress on “cleansing Gaza” is no ‘End-Game’ for Biden, (Alastair Crooke, Al Mayadeen) because the HAMAS tunnel system – in Gaza which is believed to stretch for 300 miles – is sustaining the gallant effort of resistance habitants, READ The Tunnel Economy of Gaza on what, how and why within an underground environment, even destabilised with de-development (refer Sara Roy, The Gaza Strip: A Case of Economic
De-Development) is able to function with full facilities and faultless functionalities.
Stretches of the tunnels are concrete reinforced, equipped with electricity and communications, have stores of food and water, and are large enough to host small gatherings of people, and even permit vehicles to travel through them, (wilsoncentre). Some Israeli military experts say that in a few places, tunnel structures could run as deep as 200 feet.
Like other places in the region, tunnels beneath Gaza, in 2001, for example, Hamas insurgents used a growing tunnel system to explode a bomb under an Israeli military post. In 2006, it was used in the abduction of an Israeli soldier who was then held captive for five years.
It is not easy to demolish the tunnel system. According to John W. Spencer, “Nothing that you use on the surface works,” he said recently on the Modern Warfare Project podcast. “You have to have specialized equipment to breathe, to see, to navigate, to communicate and to deploy lethal means, especially shooting.” This is because cell phones wouldn’t work underground; GPS signals cannot be received for location-finding; any gunshot flashes would blind infrared googles; explosions often deplete oxygen inside the tunnels.
Thus, Israel has often used the existence of the tunnels as justification for bombing civilian areas, including after a large Israeli airstrike hit a densely populated area in the Jabaliya neighborhood, (nyt).
However, Israel will not defeat Gaza (palestinechronicle); indeed, Defeating Hamas is a challenge Israel cannot overcome, (Emir Hadzikadunic). Even though former U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper is of the opinion that Israel should “absolutely” finish its fight against Hamas and root out the Palestinian militant group, but that doing so requires dealing with Iran “once and for all.” Whereas, more than ever, lasting peace is the critical goal (thehill).
6] Demilitarisation
It needs to be noted that the weapons that the US is providing to Israel – where “merchants of death” are war profiteers – and why they are different from those supplied to Ukraine as is well-explained here:
The Small Diameter Bomb, which a senior defense official said that the United States has provided Israel, is a 250-lb., air-launched, precision-guided munition. Its relatively small warhead will reduce collateral damage in the densely populated Gaza Strip. One thousand of the weapons were expedited to Israel, as Jerusalem had previously ordered them through a direct commercial sale. The United States has procured over 37,000 of SDB Increment I and nearly 2,000 of SDB Increment II in total, according to Pentagon documents. U.S. Air Force and Navy procurement of both SDB variants averaged over 5,700 per year from 2018 to 2022, showing that industry can produce the weapon at scale. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Israel received 8,550 SDBs from the United States between 2010 and 2022. Consequently, Israel’s war against Hamas is costing the economy around US$260 m every day, payouts to ultra-orthodox schools and other causes championed by right-wingers in the ruling coalition have set off a reckoning for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The cost to insure Israeli sovereign bonds against a default is more than double what it was before the war began. And the risk premium, or spread, investors demand to hold Israeli dollar notes over US Treasuries remains about 25 basis points higher.
see also Congressional Research Service, “US Foreign Aid to Israel”, 2023.
7] EPILOGUE
With Israel as a nation nearing its end, and the collapse of unipolar U.S. as the hegemonic imperial hubris, it is appropriate moment for progressive left to rise to the occasion united towards a multipolar platform to save and serve humanity.
It is the momentum to counter and confront the contributions ruling classes are providing to the Zionist entity, but to provide an realistic geopolitical aspiration enjoining the Global South in creating an alternative and more equitable world order.
It is to be the movement not only for the The Palestinian Place but every revolutionary cause of the exploited and oppressed masses to join the fight for a more equal world for the majority of its inhabitants with a shared destiny for Mankind on this ecological Earth.
List of articles and mini-essays posted in other websites during the week:
2] Dominique De Villepin on the Israel-Hamas War
4] Hezbollah Deterrence Equilibrium with Israel
5] Iraq’s foreign policy strategy
6] The Triad of Imperialism-Zionism-Reactionism
8] Capitalisation of the Progressive Wage System
10] MOMENTUM #173 and the FRIDAY FILES covering contemporary events in the Asia-Pacific Basin and around the world.
Liberation forces in Palestine
Palestinian-Israeli Peace Process
Also listen to Douglas Macgregor; and (Jeffrey Sach talking with) John Mearsheimer and Sebastian Rosato, “How States Think: The Rationality of Foreign Policy” (Yale University Press, 2023) during an era when Zionist-initiated murdering madness in occupied Palestine is not sustainable morally, politically, militarily or economically.
Firestorms 